13 Jul · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1538
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Langer
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1495
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 66% (73)
Fair odds · Langer
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H51-44
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.