13 Jul · 10:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1453
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1465
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Moravec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (20)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.