13 Jul · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1545
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Beran
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1495
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Beran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (17)
Fair odds · Beran
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.