13 Jul · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1453
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Filipek
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1444
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Filipek goes over total as favourite 63% (43)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H13-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.