13 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1443
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Zahradka
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1444
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zahradka🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 69% (111)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H73-59
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.