13 Jul · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1549
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1648
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.77· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+99
H2H121-92
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+99)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (121-92)