13 Jul · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1601
FormWWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Benes
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1525
FormWLWWL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heuman🌟Heuman covers set handicap as underdog 82% (34)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.63· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H17-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-9)