13 Jul · 17:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1605
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kowal
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1607
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowal🌟Niezgoda covers set handicap as underdog 64% (14)
Fair odds · Kowal
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H28-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.