13 Jul · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1605
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gembala
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1638
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niezgoda🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (44)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H6-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.