13 Jul · 18:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1649
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sarganek
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1605
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niezgoda🌟Niezgoda covers set handicap as underdog 64% (14)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H32-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.