13 Jul · 17:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EP
🇨🇿Erik Precek
ELO 1516
FormLLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1620
FormWWLWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Precek🌟Krupnik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (40)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+104
H2H13-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+104)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-8)