13 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1549
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
EP
🇨🇿Erik Precek
ELO 1519
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Precek🌟Jr goes over total as favourite 72% (32)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H10-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.