14 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Srnka
ELO 1569
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hnizdil
TH
🇨🇿Tomas Hnizdil
ELO 1617
FormWLLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Hnizdil
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H9-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.