14 Jul · 14:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1527
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Beran
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1496
FormLWLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Beran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (19)
Fair odds · Beran
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~82 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.