14 Jul · 10:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Srnka
ELO 1569
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Srnka
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1487
FormLWLLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 64% (70)
Fair odds · Srnka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)