14 Jul · 10:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1489
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sebl
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1487
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 64% (70)
Fair odds · Sebl
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H18-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.