14 Jul · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jan Masternak
ELO 1497
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stapor
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1557
FormWLLLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H37-24
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-24)