14 Jul · 11:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1532
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1647
FormWWLWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+115
H2H24-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+115)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-18)