14 Jul · 19:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JT
🇨🇿Jakub Travnicek
ELO 1506
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Macurak
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1511
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.