14 Jul · 15:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1481
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1488
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Chlad covers set handicap as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.