14 Jul · 13:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EP
🇨🇿Erik Precek
ELO 1529
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1570
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Precek🌟Benes rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (52)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.