14 Jul · 12:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1624
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Skvrna
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1554
FormWWLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (65)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H15-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-9)