14 Jul · 13:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1530
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1518
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (12)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.77· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.