14 Jul · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1563
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Osvald
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Vinansky
ELO 1528
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🌟Osvald rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (18)
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.