14 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1614
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skvrna
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1564
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 73% (37)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H49-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.