14 Jul · 19:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vanek
ELO 1786
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kadavy
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1812
FormLLLWW
48%
52%
🌟Vanek covers set handicap as underdog 78% (55)
Fair odds · Kadavy
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H13-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.