14 Jul · 22:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jakub Mach
ELO 1463
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zeman
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zeman
ELO 1499
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.