14 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Marek Dlask
ELO 1451
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mach
JM
🇨🇿Jakub Mach
ELO 1463
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dlask🌟Mach goes over total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Mach
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H17-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.