14 Jul · 19:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1433
FormLLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Jr
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1539
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Lysek goes over total as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+106
H2H21-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-15)