15 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1587
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Osmera
JS
🇨🇿Jan Srnka
ELO 1571
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Osmera
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.