15 Jul · 14:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1410
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Nemec
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kolbusovsky
ELO 1296
FormWLLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolbusovsky🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (76)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+114
H2H34-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+114)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-19)