15 Jul · 13:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1602
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1630
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (65)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H28-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.