15 Jul · 17:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1538
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
KB
🇨🇿Karel Baros
ELO 1524
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baros🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (12)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.