15 Jul · 22:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Petr Silhan
ELO 1624
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stusek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1659
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Silhan
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H61-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.