15 Jul · 20:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1622
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sarganek
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1664
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowal🌟Kowal covers set handicap as underdog 64% (36)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H21-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.