15 Jul · 16:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1520
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mandrysz
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1490
FormLWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sindler🌟Sindler covers set handicap as underdog 81% (36)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H12-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.