15 Jul · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DL
🇨🇿Dominik Lengal
ELO 1646
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lengal
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1572
FormWWWLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Lengal
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 72% · 1.40· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+74
H2H17-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-6)