15 Jul · 20:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BG
🇨🇿Blazej Gola
ELO 1496
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Guzy
KG
🇨🇿Karol Guzy
ELO 1609
FormWLLLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Guzy
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.53· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+113
H2H24-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+113)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-17)