15 Jul · 21:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1435
FormWLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kus
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kus
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
43%
57%
🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Kus
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H11-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-10)