15 Jul · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1489
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vidourek
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1450
FormWWLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Vidourek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.