16 Jul · 12:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1538
FormWLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kocab
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1649
FormWWWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Kocab
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H20-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-12)