16 Jul · 14:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1423
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Filipek
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1441
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🌟Filipek goes over total as favourite 63% (43)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H11-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.