16 Jul · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1524
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Knazik
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1473
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Knazik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (83)
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H41-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.