16 Jul · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1468
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sevecek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1482
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sevecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 15% (13)
Fair odds · Sevecek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.