16 Jul · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1440
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zahradka
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1462
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 69% (116)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H75-59
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.