16 Jul · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1440
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tlusty
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1479
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 69% (116)
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H49-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.