16 Jul · 18:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1807
FormLWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Vesecky
DB
🇨🇿David Bochnak
ELO 1702
FormWLLWL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Bochnak🌟Bochnak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (42)
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+105
H2H23-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+105)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-18)