16 Jul · 17:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FS
🇨🇿Filip Sikora
ELO 1632
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sikora
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1586
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niezgoda🌟Sikora rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (32)
Fair odds · Sikora
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H27-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.