16 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇨🇿Adam Duch
ELO 1662
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Duch
KK
🇨🇿Kamil Kowalewski
ELO 1656
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Duch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.35· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H12-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.