17 Jul · 09:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1489
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Muller
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1410
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marat🌟Muller rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (29)
Fair odds · Muller
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)